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Netflix: COVID-Resistant

Target Price: $365

The number of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) subscribers in the UCAN market will rise by over 500K in Q1, or by 3.80% YoY, with the consensus on just 1.60%. Outside North America, this figure is going to rise by 30.90% against the consensus of 29.90%.

The COVID lock-down made all public events impossible, making people spend most time at home, and the interest towards video streaming services could not but rise heavily. This makes Netflix one of the biggest beneficiaries so far.

According to Statista figures, the earnings may amount to $25.90B this year, which is +4.10% YoY, and exceed $30.40B by 2024. Currently, Netflix is a leader in video streaming services, with the customer base of over 167 million people worldwide, and the revenue of over $20B last year. Netflix is COVID-resistant, its user base is still growing thanks to the low subscription cost that does not depends on the number of hours of the video content watched.

The analysts believe, however, that Netflix should add an ad-supporting subscription type, which will allow it to easier compete with Disney +, Apple +, Hulu, Comcast Peacock, and CBS All Access.

In 2020, Netflix is likely to spend between $17B and $18B on content creation. Nevertheless, with the earnings rising, the profit will also rise, as the content obligations are mostly fixed. The number of new subscribers in Q1 should amount to 7M. 60% of 2020 earnings are to come from Asia, Europe, and Latin America.